Scientists from AltSU explained why powerful tornadoes are coming to Altai

In 2022 residents of Altai Krai witnessed small tornadoes and whirlwinds, which are usually recorded mainly in America. Scientists explain that the climate of our region is significantly changing, and hurricanes will occur more often every year. An amic.ru correspondent Vyacheslav Kondakov spoke with a climatologist, an associate professor of the Department of Physical Geography and Geoinformation Systems of Altai State University Natalya Kharlamova and found out whether we should seriously be afraid of tornadoes and how destructive they can be expected. In addition, she spoke about the catastrophic problem with forest fires in Siberia and warned everyone about the coming global warming. In 30 years, the inhabitants of Altai Krai are at risk of suffering from diseases that are typical of the tropical countries. By the way, due to the rapid climate change, people have become more nervous, because it is still difficult to adapt to sudden changes in weather.

— The question that worries everyone and for which I have come to you: how rapidly is our climate changing?

— This is actually a global question. It is changing, and quite noticeably. There are objective reasons for this: in the millennial context, changes, albeit very insignificant, in the position of the axis of rotation of our planet, which, in combination with other planetary parameters, could provoke the onset of ice ages. There are also anthropogenic factors.

The other day I took part in a forum of climatologists, and my colleagues and I agreed that a serious redistribution of the air flow system has recently been observed. For a long time in temperate latitudes, the movement of air masses in the sublatitudinal direction from west to east prevailed. In other words, the inhabitants of Siberia could quite reasonably observe: what the weather is like in Moscow — what it will be like in Altai Krai in three or four days. Now there is a noticeable change to the predominance of submeridional circulation: cold air masses come to us from the Arctic, and air masses move towards them from the south. This determines sharper weather contrasts: one or two weeks it is extremely hot, and then very cool with a lot of precipitation, i.e., an ever-increasing frequency of more frequent and intense extreme weather and climate events in all regions of the Earth.

— And how soon will the climate in our region finally change?

— We cannot predict a thousand years ahead with a sufficient degree of probability. I have been teaching climatology at the university for more than 40 years, and I am constantly asked about what awaits us in 100 years. Let's first deal with the near future, and only then we will deal with forecasts for posterity. When discussing climate change, it is necessary to compare data on air temperature, precipitation and other parameters for different 30-year periods, starting primarily from 1850-1880 (pre-industrial period). All calculations show that our climate is changing rapidly, and the temperature will only increase.

— Everyone is just interested in what it will be like in Altai Krai in 100 years: like in Miami, almost all year round in shorts and a T-shirt, or like in Kolyma?

— Like almost everywhere on the globe, Altai Krai is in the trend of global warming, figuratively speaking, Altai Krai is moving closer to Florida than to the Arctic: the last time an abnormally cold winter in the region was observed in 1968-1969, when we had the temperature of minus 40 degrees for several weeks. Then the winter of 2001 was quite cold. Previously, cold / warm climate cycles used to change about once in 30-40 years, now everything is happening more rapidly. Everyone forgot how abnormally hot April was last year. And May of this year broke all records with a deviation of the average monthly air temperature from the norm by more than 4 degrees and an extreme lack of precipitation. In June, finally, precipitation passed and they were vital for the formation of a new crop.

— May has been very warm in Altai for many years. Why?

— In scientific terms, there is an expansion of the boundaries of the summer season. In our country, the beginning of summer has significantly shifted to May, and in fact, in recent years, summer weather has been observed in the region for up to four months. It is important now to calculate the modern dates for the beginning of the autumn season. We must understand that the period of a sharp cold snap can shift to September and the inhabitants of the region must have time to harvest. Let me remind you of the story of how snow fell in September 2010 and the growing season was abruptly interrupted - then the story about Altai Krai was broadcast on central television. This is also a very important feature of global warming: hot weather can quickly change to cold: we have sweltering heat for two weeks, and then it rains for two weeks.

— Can we predict the temperature rise in Altai Krai, at least in the next 30 years?

— Meteorologists and climatologists around the world cannot make such absolutely accurate forecasts. It definitely won’t be as hot as in the tropics. However, over the past 30 years, in our region, the average temperature has repeatedly been fixed at the level of the steppe belt at the beginning of the tropical zone. In just half a century in  Altai Krai, the air temperature has increased by an average of 2-3 degrees and this is very significant. Therefore, in our country, as elsewhere in Russia, diseases characteristic of tropical countries have become more common. The composition of vegetation is also changing, and with the appearance of more southern pests on our territory, the number of diseases among agricultural crops increases. For humans, these processes also do not remain without consequences: for example, the fact that ticks began to feel so imposingly themselves is also a consequence of climate change. Increasingly, West Nile fever is recorded in Russia, and our Siberian organism is not adapted to tropical diseases, because for centuries we lived in a different, more severe climate.

— And what does it take our body to adapt to higher temperatures?

— How to adapt, if at first it is very warm in our country, then it is very cold — these are the tasks that scientists are trying to solve.

— But it’s a huge blow to the body. We have sharp temperature fluctuations in the region, the weather sometimes changes very rapidly, and many people suffer, for example, from pressure drops. How can a person adapt to a sudden change in the weather?

— Medical specialists confirm the conclusions of climatologists that these symptoms indicate that our climate is increasingly adopting some features of a sharply continental climate. Yesterday, for example, in the morning the pressure was 732 mm Hg., and today it is already 760 mm, and such differences are a serious test not only for the elderly and weather-dependent people. I would not advise people who suffer from chronic diseases to move somewhere. The history of mankind shows that we are gradually adapting to climate change, but this process must be studied, monitored and a set of comprehensive recommendations should be developed. For example, we once had a significant number of trees in Barnaul. It's good that parks and squares are now being revived, but at the same time, look at how much the number of high-rise buildings has increased. Each wall of such a high-rise during the warm period daily heats up from the sun and radiates additional heat into the air of the city. As a result, the average summer temperature in the city has increased by several degrees over the past decades, and sweltering summer weather adversely affects the well-being and health of citizens. These things need to be taken into account in the structure and monitoring of the master plan for Barnaul. Climatology is a very important science and this course of study is mandatory in all geographical departments of universities.

—  This summer, there have been a lot of videos on the Internet with small tornadoes in Altai Krai. They didn't existe before. Why have tornadoes appeared?

— From the point of view of science, these are not tornadoes, but small-scale whirlwinds with a vertical axis. The word "tornado" in Spanish means "twist" and this term is used in the United States, where the highest frequency of such phenomena is noted. Everyone remembers that it was the tornado that took Ellie's house to the magical land of Oz. For us, the observed phenomena of dust whirlwinds, dust storms, and even tornadoes are not a new phenomenon, but everywhere there is an increase, firstly, in the power and intensity of such phenomena, and secondly, in their frequency. The trend is observed throughout the country, and the reason is an increase in the frequency of intense heat or sharp intrusions of cold air from the Arctic, which lead to the collision of warm and cold air currents. Vortices are formed due to the uncharacteristic movement of air currents and can cause very negative consequences.

— Can they cause serious damage?

— We are lucky: you and I live in Siberia - in the very center of a huge continent, and not on a smaller continent surrounded by oceans. In the US, they record from 200 to 800 tornadoes a year, and we are surprised at two or three smaller eddies. Although indeed in Altai Krai there are more and more of them every year, and they become more powerful and destructive. Authorities and ordinary residents of the region should prepare for this in advance and must take it into account during construction, especially roofs. Scientists are unanimous that in Altai Krai there will not be the same dangerous tornadoes as in the United States, however, there will definitely be more dust storms and an increase in air dust in cities, which can contribute to the growth of pulmonary diseases.

— Some doctors already claim that the number of lung diseases in Altai Krai has increased significantly. The reason is the large amount of dust in the air.

— Quite possible. It is important to understand that climate change and, accordingly, the nature of the weather affects many aspects of our lives and activities. For example, some studies have shown that the climate makes us more nervous: due to pressure drops, we become more unbalanced.

— Many experts say that winds have become stronger in Altai Krai due to the fact that forest belts are practically not being renewed now. They were actively created in the 1960s, and during this time many trees were either cut down, or they simply served their time. Is this true?

— A very difficult problem for Altai Krai. Windbreaks are a global system for containing snow accumulation. In the 1960s, up to 5-9 strong dust storms were noted in Barnaul. Then they practically disappeared due to the creation of a system of forest belts, which, unfortunately, eventually ceased to be cared for and they lost their protective functions. Forest belts are designed to change the structure of the wind flow: to reduce wind speed and the transfer of soil deposits from the upper layer of arable land (reduction of dust storms), as well as the snow cover of transport routes. But if they are not thinned out, then a snowdrift forms on one side of the strip, and on the other there is not enough snow, and as a result there is a risk that nothing will grow on the field. This problem needs to be taken seriously.

— It takes big money to plant a huge number of trees.

— But it will lead to big savings in the future. At one time, the problem of dust storms for the region was very relevant and is now returning again. Including in connection with the specifics of climate change.

— What effect can fires have on the climate?

— Fires are a consequence of global warming and a decrease in rainfall. A large number of soot particles enter the air, which, being the core of the condensation of water vapor and the formation of a drop of water, will fall in the form of precipitation in some other part of the planet. And, perhaps, where they are not needed in such a large volume. This affects the entire global precipitation cycle in the world. Everything is interconnected. We are already seeing how the climate in the Arctic has begun to change, and due to the absence of mountain systems in the north of Western Siberia, these air masses are moving towards us and changing our climate regime.

— And what should we do? To fight fires more effectively?

— It's already happening. This year, the fires were extinguished quite quickly. The Ministry of Emergency Situations has learned to respond to fires promptly. And fortunately for our region, this year there are no such large-scale fires as two years ago, when haze covered the sky over half of the country for a week. This is the adaptation of a person to external circumstances. Although it is difficult to prevent fires. In recent years, dry thunderstorms, rather than humans, have increasingly become the cause.

— But the anthropogenic factor also plays an important role. Some climatologists argue that human actions are the main cause of global warming. Do you agree with them?

— Many articles have been written on this topic, and there can be no single point of view. Of course, the influence of man on nature is enormous. It is simple: we began to develop new territories that were not previously so densely populated by people, for example, Yakutia. Wherever a man appears, he always influences the climate: trees are cut down, new cities and buildings are built. I like the trend that in the last five years, active propaganda for the preservation of the climate of our planet has begun, various environmental events are regularly held. These important issues are already taught in the lessons in the elementary grades of the school.

— It looks as if there has been less snow in Altai Krai in recent years. I remember that in early 2000s the snowdrifts used to reach two meters, and now they are only knee-deep. Why is this happening?

— This is a feature of climate cyclicity. Now we live in an era of little snowy winters. In the 60s of the last century, due to snowdrifts, trams were not visible in Barnaul. Believe me, there will come a time when there will be a lot of precipitations again.

— Will winters get milder or harsher?

— Cycles change very quickly. Previously, for example, winters were consistently cold for 10 years, then a period of warming set in, which also lasted about a decade. Now everything is changing almost at lightning speed: there is no winter for winter. Moreover, even in one winter we can observe two weeks of abnormal frosts, which are replaced by almost positive temperatures. In Soviet times, it was very important to predict what the winter would be like in order to prepare for it in advance: to make the necessary supplies of firewood and coal. Now the periods have become shorter. Almost every three years, everything changes, and we need to adapt, the amount of work increases, including for specialists in the field of production planning, economists, who, for example, at this stage must allocate more funds for the fight against snow and ice.

— If we take the most pessimistic scenario: due to global warming, the glaciers will melt, the water level in the ocean will rise, then what will the climate be like in Altai Krai? It has always been believed that if you want to survive in a global catastrophe, come to Siberia. Is this true?

— It’s good that we have a temperate continental climate in the region, and in the event of a global catastrophe, those who wish “can move to us.”

— The population of the planet is also growing globally. It is believed that the Earth’s capacity is to feed no more than 12 billion people.

— We will not relocate to any distant space, and we need to protect our small but beautiful planet. There are still so many areas left unexploited.

— Why should we strive for space if the ocean has not yet been mastered.

— Quite right! We have Antarctica - a huge piece of land. A person will be able to adapt to a hot climate and move to new territories. I'm sure of it.

— Scientists have long been talking about global warming and the consequences that this can lead to. From the outside it seems that no one listens to scientists, doesn’t it?

— Then why does our government invest so much money in climate research? And not only Russia, but also other countries. Aircraft flights, for example, depend on the knowledge and results of the work of climatologists. However, scientists think more globally. We help adapt to climate change. A significant number of leading institutes and observatories are working on this, which develop recommendations for every industry, including agriculture. You just have no idea what a complex system it is that studies a huge amount of data. In any state, the topic of weather and climate is given great influence. And it is right.