Lyudmila Dolgacheva, a lecturer at the Department of Physical Geography and Geoinformation Systems of the Institute of Geography at Altai State University, told Altayskaya Pravda about the state of the climate.
In recent years, Altai Krai has experienced instability in weather conditions associated with changes in average annual air temperatures, linked to the developing processes of global climate change. Summer months are characterized by abnormally high temperatures, while winter months often become significantly warmer.
Recently, we have increasingly heard about such a phenomenon as global warming, among the causes of which is the ever-increasing volume of human economic activity. This contributes to an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Therefore, in recent years, there have been quite noticeable deviations in average monthly air temperatures from the usual long-term values. According to experts, 2025 will not be a record year in terms of indicators, but will be among the three hottest years in the long-term observation period.
“According to European scientists, the average global air temperature has exceeded the pre-industrial level by 1.5 degrees Celsius for the first time,” as Lyudmila Dolgacheva clarifies. “The territory of Altai Krai was no exception: a long-term archive of climate data reveals that recent winters in the region have often been warmer by as much as 2-3 degrees. Forecasts from the Hydrometeorological Center suggest that January and February 2025 will continue this trend, with higher-than-average monthly temperatures. Hydrometeorological Center experts predict that higher temperatures are expected in the first quarter of this year. This warming is anticipated to affect not only the end of winter but also the beginning of spring. An increase in temperatures can lead to early snowmelt and subsequent increases in the water levels across the region.
The specialist also notes that the climate of any territory can be influenced by many factors, for example, the fact that Altai Krai is dominated by air masses that differ in their properties.
“Within the region's territory, cold continental air moving from Central Asia from the south to the north interacts with relatively warm air masses, which often interact with cold sea air coming to our territory from the Arctic,” the climatologist explains. “The interaction of air masses with different properties contributes to unstable, rather sharply changing weather. A striking example of this was the thunderstorm in January last year.
It is also worth noting such a natural phenomenon as El Niño, or the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a recurring natural phenomenon characterized by fluctuations in water temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It has profound implications for global weather patterns globally.
During an El Niño event, the surface water temperature in the tropical Pacific rises for a short period. Under normal conditions, the Peruvian Current transports cold waters along the western coast of the Southern Cone.
However, during El Niño, trade winds weaken, leading to a warming of surface waters across a broader area of the Pacific Ocean.
Abnormal flows of heat and moisture, which can spread over long distances in the atmosphere, cause deviations in the distribution of atmospheric pressure.